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Market Timing Technical Analysis September 2010

Begin September, we published the following for the September 2010 market timing technical analysis in the Stock Trend Investing gold member section.
Most stock markets declined during August. The exceptions were China, India and Thailand.
The four US based market indices are without a clear trend up or down. We are holding our investments in US markets, not increasing or decreasing them.
Europe is a mixed bag. The 6 month moving average for the German DAX is still up, but from our analysis we do not get a clear trend signal. The German economy has been recently got a lot of praise. The UK’s FTSE got now a sell signal. However, the index closed almost flat compared to the previous month and with only a few points more, we would not have gotten a clear signal here as well.
The French CAC and Dutch AEX provide us with clear down-trend signals. We are definitely not buying any European index funds at this moment. Most what we owned before we have sold already, so we have very little expose to European equity.
Our trend signals are bearish on the Japanese Nikkei already since the beginning of the year and we do not hold any Japanese equities and would not buy any either.
The Chinese Shanghai Composite index and the Hong Kong Hang Seng index are relatively stable over the last few months and do not give us any clear trend signal. We hold what we have and do not increase or decrease our investments in China at this moment.
Both the Indian Sensex and the Thai SET show a steady trend up. Note that both are above their 6-month moving average and small corrections are always possible. India and South East Asia is the area where we are increasing our investments now.
Gold has shot back up in August and has still a strong 6-month moving average trend up. Since there was a big dip during July, our system does not give us a clear trend-up indication since the historic pattern still could indicate that something in the trend could change.
On the currency exchange rate front, the big moves are in the USD/JPY. The Japanese Yen is almost at it strongest point of the last 20 years. The GBP continues to weaken a little the last few months compared to the US Dollar and the Euro has already for 2 months now an average around the 1.27 to the Dollar.
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Thanks for this good analysis andf summary. I will sign up for the newsletter and may be try the membership trial.
I like this approach since it only takes a few hours per month. I do not want to spend more time on my stock market investments.


Via this site I also read on the Stock Trend Investing site about why the Yen is so strong. It seems to me that the Yen is a bubble now that can collapse sometime the coming years.
I agree with the conclusion to stay out of Japan with my savings (being not Japanese, otherwise it would maybe be different).


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