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Market Timing and Buy-Sell Signals for Index and Mutual Funds, November 2010

Begin November 2010, Stock Trend Investing published the following summary in its Gold Membership section of the website.

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All Stock Market Indices covered by Stock Trend Investing showed gains during October except for the Japanese Nikkei and Indian Sensex.

Hong Kong and Shanghai are giving us positive trend indicators. The Chinese market is in an upwards trend. The same is valid for the Thailand SET and for the Gold price.

The US indices (Dow, S&P 500, NYSE, NASDAQ) are all still in a side-ways moving period. There is no clear trend indicator yet up or down. However, the US market is very close to starting an upwards trend. We’ll see next month. Note that we have never had a “sell” or “down trend” indicator for the US markets so far yet and we are still holding our investments in the US market from the beginning of the year.

In Europe, the German DAX provides us with a positive indicator for a trend upwards. However, the other European indices are still not giving a trend confirmation. Also here we need another month of gains to get a trend confirmation for the whole of Europe.

With only one market giving a trend signal, this can be an early bird or it can be a false indication for a long term trend. Next month we’ll know more.

The Indian Sensex has been in a strong trend up for the last couple of months. It closed end of October just slightly under the September closing. We keep our investments and wait and see how the market will develop the coming months.

The Japanese Nikkei was declining again during October. This probably has to do with the strengthening of the Yen.

The US Dollar was getting weaker during October against all four currencies that we monitor: Yen, Euro, GBP and CHF. For non-US investors, the weakening trend of the Dollar is making the US equity markets less profitable.

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